Risk-based drought early warning system in reservoir operation     

Wen-Cheng Huang  Chia-Ching Chou 《Advances in water resources》2008

This paper introduces a risk-based decision process integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. A new risk index is also defined to characterize decision makers’ attitudes toward risk. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was tested. Over the simulation period (1964–2005), the expected overall accuracy approximated to 77%. The results show that the proposed approach is very practical and should find good use for reservoir operations.  相似文献   

Vulnerability of floating tunnel shafts for increasing earthquake loading     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2016

Fragility curves constitute the cornerstone in seismic risk evaluations and performance-based earthquake engineering. They describe the probability of a structure to experience a certain damage level for a given earthquake intensity measure, providing a relationship between seismic hazard and vulnerability. In this paper a numerical approach is applied to derive fragility curves for tunnel shafts built in clays, a component that is found in several critical infrastructure such as urban metro networks, airport facilities or water and waste water projects. The seismic response of a representative tunnel shaft is assessed using tridimensional finite difference non-linear analyses carried out with the program FLAC^3D, under increasing levels of seismic intensity. A hysteretic model is used to simulate the soil non-linear behavior during the seismic event. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the soil-structure system response is accounted for in the analyses. The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces. The fragility curves are estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration at a rock or stiff soil outcrop, based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed fragility models allows the characterization of the seismic risk of a representative tunnel shaft typology and soil conditions considering the associated uncertainties, and partially fill the gap of data required in performing a risk analysis assessment of tunnels shafts.  相似文献   

Qualification of residential land from the viewpoint of liquefaction vulnerability     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2016

While the assessment of liquefaction potential by using borehole data has a long history since 1970s, its target users are still limited to professional engineers and experts. This situation is not favored by ordinary people who are seriously concerned with the reliability and preservation of their real estates during strong earthquakes. The demand of the people is that the liquefaction vulnerability of their residential land is precisely and clearly but concisely demonstrated so that people without engineering background can understand the real extent of risk. In this regard, the authors, under the governmental support, proposed a simple manifestation of the extent of liquefaction vulnerability of private houses in terms of the thickness of the surface unliquefiable crust and the vertical weighted average of the factor of safety or its equivalence. This achievement was made possible by introducing the ageing effects of soil on liquefaction resistance in addition to using geotechnical data base of subsoil conditions. During the work, it was found that existing borehole data may not be fully reliable and that experts who have sufficient knowledge of the local subsoil should assess the vulnerability. This requirement is satisfied by the qualification of special engineers that has been initiated by the Japanese Geotechnical Society in conjunction with several other institutions. The proposed method of subsoil qualification is used not only for individual residential land but also for regional hazard assessment.  相似文献   

Polychlorinated biphenyl and organochlorine pesticide residues in surface sediments from the Mediterranean Sea (Egypt)     

《国际泥沙研究》2016,(1):44-52

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Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Irrigated Agricultural Crops,El‐Saff Wastewater Canal,Egypt          下载免费PDF全文

Karam Farrag  Elsayed Elbastamy  Amr Ramadan 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2016,44(9):1174-1183

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Climate threats,water supply vulnerability and the risk of a water crisis in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (Northeastern Mexico)     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

This paper evaluates the risk of a water crisis – a substantial, sudden reduction in water supply – in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA), posed by climate threats and the vulnerability of its water supply system. Our analysis of long-term precipitation, water supply and water availability data reveals that the MMA is highly vulnerable to recurring periods of exceptionally low precipitation and scarce surface water availability. We identify two episodes in the recent past (1998 and 2013) when the MMA water supply system almost collapsed as reservoirs neared depletion in the face of abnormally dry weather. Furthermore our climate projections point to warmer and drier future conditions for the region and consequently, heightened climate threats. We conclude that the risk of a water crisis in the MMA is substantial and probably will increase due to climate change. This establishes a clear and pressing need for a comprehensive package of adaptation measures to mitigate the consequences of a water crisis should one occur as well as to reduce the likelihood of such an event.  相似文献   

中国南北过渡带研究的十大科学问题   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张百平 《地理科学进展》2019,38(3):305-311

秦岭-淮河一线在60 a前被科学地确定为中国南北分界线。此后中国地学科学家一直在探索分界线的具体位置和划分指标改进问题;随着数据的积累和认识的加深,还发现了一些新的科学问题。2017年启动的国家科技基础资源调查专项“中国南北过渡带综合科学考察”将秦岭-大巴山定义为中国南北过渡带的主体,拟全面系统地调查和研究其自然地理要素与资源问题,从而实现中国南北分界线研究的全面深化和突破。秦岭-大巴山具有多维地带性结构,表现出高度的过渡性、复杂性、多样性和敏感性。目前面临和需要研究的主要科学问题包括：① 南北分界线与南北过渡带的关系?② 暖温带与亚热带划分指标如何改进?③ 植被-土壤在南北方向上的渐变序列及其形成机理?④ 全球变化与地区关键生物气候指标空间变动的关系?⑤ 秦巴山地的多维地带性结构如何分解与综合?⑥ 秦巴山区生物多样性、特有性的格局与机理?⑦ 秦巴山地东西向廊道效应?⑧ 秦巴山地的区域环境效应及对国家生态安全的意义?⑨ 秦巴山地在中国历史发展中的特殊意义?⑩ 西秦岭的地理结构与华夏文明起源的关系?这些问题既是过去研究工作和认识的总结,也是未来一段时间内需要关注和研究的重点。希望这样的归纳和梳理对于中国南北过渡带和南北分界线的科学研究具有一定的启发和促进作用,为中国自然地理学理论发展、生物多样性和生态安全研究,甚至为华夏文明起源的研究提供新的视角和框架。  相似文献   

A protocol for classifying ecologically relevant marine zones,a statistical approach     

Els Verfaillie  Steven Degraer  Kristien Schelfaut  Wouter Willems  Vera Van Lancker 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

Mapping ecologically relevant zones in the marine environment has become increasingly important. Biological data are however often scarce and alternatives are being sought in optimal classifications of abiotic variables. The concept of ‘marine landscapes’ is based on a hierarchical classification of geological, hydrographic and other physical data. This approach is however subject to many assumptions and subjective decisions.  相似文献   

Direct determination of tidal levels for engineering applications based on biological observations     

S.C. Stiros  P.A. Pirazzoli 《Coastal Engineering》2008

The scarcity of tide gauges in a global scale and the variability of the tidal levels along contiguous coasts mainly due to changing hydrographic conditions make the determination of tidal levels, especially of the Mean Sea Level, not an easy task. Determination of such levels with a precision of about 10 cm, necessary for most coastal engineering works, is usually based on records of temporary tide gauges or on geomorphological techniques. In this paper we present an alternative approach permitting to accurately identify tidal levels with a precision suitable for civil engineering applications based on biological observations on rocky shores, including breakwaters and quays. More specifically, we present evidence that the biological zonation, i.e. the distribution of coastal species in well-defined sub-horizontal belts, is practically insensitive to seasonal and other small-scale fluctuations of the sea level and is clearly related to certain levels, mostly the Mean Low Water (MLW). This approach, somewhat similar to what has been used in the past (for instance for the determination of the geodetic vertical datum in the Republic of Venice, Italy, till approximately AD 1800), permits direct determination of the Mean Sea Level or of other tidal levels on the basis of biological observations without statistical analyses of tide-gauge records with an accuracy of 5–10 cm, especially in microtidal, low-energy coasts.  相似文献   

Delineation of spatial redox zones using discriminant analysis and geochemical modelling in arsenic‐affected alluvial aquifers     

Jin‐Jing Lee  Cheng‐Shin Jang  Sheng‐Wei Wang  Chin‐Ping Liang  Chen‐Wuing Liu 《水文研究》2008,22(16):3029-3041

This study characterized the redox conditions in arsenic‐affected groundwater aquifers of the Lanyang plain, Taiwan. Discriminant analysis was adopted to delineate three redox zones (oxidative, transitional and reductive zones) in different aquifers and yielded 92·3% correctness on groundwater quality data. Arsenic is mainly distributed in the reductive zone, and arsenic distribution in the shallow aquifer is mainly affected by surface activities. According to PHREEQC modelling results, possible mechanisms for arsenic release to groundwater in Lanyang plain are explored. Arsenic released to groundwater in the oxidative zone (zone 1) is primarily caused by the oxidations of arsenic‐bearing pyrite minerals, and arsenate is the predominant species. While the reductive dissolution of Fe‐oxides are responsible for the high arsenic concentration found in the transitional and reductive zones (zones 2 and 3), arsenite is the predominant species. The reduction potential of groundwater rises as the depths and zones increase. Some sulphates may be reduced to form sulphide ions, which then react with arsenic to form arseno‐sulphide deposits (such as realgar, orpiment) and then slightly lower groundwater arsenic concentrations. A conceptual diagram which summarized the possible release processes of arsenic in different redox zones along groundwater flow in Lanyang plain is postulated. Arsenic‐bearing pyrite and arsenopyrite (FeAsS) are oxidized as they are exposed to the infiltrated oxygenated rainwater, releasing soluble arsenate Fe(II) and SO₄^2? into zone 1. The dissolution of arsenic‐rich Fe‐oxides due to the onset of reducing conditions in zones 2 and 3 is responsible for the mobility of arsenic and likely to be the primary mechanism of arsenic release to groundwater in the Lanyang plain Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献